Closing line value
What Is Closing Line Value (CLV)? How to Grade Your Number Against the Close
The final score is a receipt. It tells you how the game finished. It does not tell you whether the number you made on Tuesday was any good.
The first grade that matters is closing line value (CLV): the distance between the number you set and the closing line, which is the last line before the game starts. You set your number before any market line is on the screen. Later, the line closes. The gap between those two is the work.
Why set your number before you see the line?
If the line is already in your head, the number you write down is a reaction to it. Setting your number first is the whole method. You price the game. Then the line is revealed. Then you decide whether the lean fits one of your betting rules and stays inside your bet-size and loss limits.
A number that keeps landing near the closing line is a skill you can practice. A number that only looks smart after the game is a story.
How does confidence fit in?
Rate how confident you were in each lean. Over a season, that rating sits next to your CLV. You find out whether the leans you believed in were the ones closest to the closing line, and whether the ones you shrugged at should have stayed paper bets.
Does beating the closing line mean you won the bet?
No. Beating the closing line does not mean the bet won, and a winning bet does not mean your number was good. Keep those two scores apart, and your betting record starts to teach you something.
It is also not a reason to bet more. Closing line value grades the price. It does not tell you to chase losses, to raise your max bet size, or to turn a paper lean into a real-money bet.
A record is a record. These posts do not promise a profit.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-MY-RESET (or 1-800-GAMBLER) · ncpgambling.org